Memory Cycle Regime: Extreme Pricing With Limited Inventory Build; Late-Cycle Signal To Watch
Non-cancellable/non-returnable (NCNR) terms are described as ramping in memory.
Automotive and analog are described as being stuck in a prolonged recovery with uncertain timing for a sustained upturn.
Semicap stocks are described as having risen largely due to multiple expansion and rising forward estimates rather than rapid current-year revenue growth.
Tokenized Collateral And Stablecoin Collateral For Cleared Markets
A speaker says collateral rating and liquidity assessment tooling is still needed to support safe adoption of tokenized collateral.
Pham criticizes a recent CFTC posture she describes as 'trophy hunting' for headlines and picking winners and losers.
Pham reports that multiple crypto companies told her they are shifting expansion plans toward New York because U.S. regulators are prepared to move quickly and local talent is concentrated there.
Cycle Sequencing And The Key Gating Transition (Investment-Led To Consumer-Led)
Current credit pull is concentrated in AI-related investment, while broader early-cycle consumer and housing leverage has not yet re-accelerated.
QE-like reserve provision is push liquidity that often fails to increase lending when banks are able but not willing, while true credit expansion requires pull demand for borrowing at attractive prices for banks.
Yield curves are already reflecting issuance and growth pressure, and keeping rates low would likely require meaningful disinflation while an inflation-neutral backdrop implies somewhat higher rates.