Ai Silicon Consolidation And Defensive M&A Pricing
Competitive pressure against NVIDIA is expected to intensify as rivals and hyperscalers pursue alternative chips and partnerships.
The decision to sell Manus was characterized as rationally taking a local maximum given existential risks, a limited acquirer set, and likely low gross margins from orchestrating multiple LLMs at low price.
Public markets may no longer be a compelling product if they cannot reward solid companies, creating a scenario where private markets offer higher valuations and effectively cheaper capital despite illiquidity.
Capital Formation Design: Stamp/Metadao Curation, Rights Enforcement, And Adverse Selection
Ranger Finance’s MetaDAO raise is highlighted as an early test of whether the STAMP/MetaDAO pathway has product-market fit for teams that already have prior investors and still want VC involvement.
A market regime shift toward focusing more on revenue is described as likely, which would generally hurt L1 tokens and help application tokens, reducing the 'rising tide' effect.
ETF inflows, rising DEX trading volumes (including Lighter and Hyperliquid), and increasing open interest are being used as early indicators of returning risk appetite.
Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Adoption And Cohort Dynamics
A central open question is whether Strategy’s approach sustains and what happens to the hundreds of follower companies (succeed, get acquired, or fail).
Public-company Bitcoin adoption creates a stockholder-management friction point within a system of institutions funding firms and retail shareholders participating.
BitcoinTreasuries.net is building and updating advanced metrics including fully diluted shares quarterly, with plans for Bitcoin-per-share and mNAV metrics and portfolio tooling.