Rosa Del Mar

Issue 16 2026-01-16

Rosa Del Mar

Daily Brief

Issue 16 2026-01-16

Agent-First Interface Shift And Ui Devaluation

  • Productivity and collaboration tools that are primarily task or document UIs are likely to be significantly disrupted if agents can replace human-facing UIs.
  • A proposed integration mechanism is to treat non-persistent, non-deterministic AI computation as a layer that hands off to persistent, reliable system layers via structured transfer points (by analogy to a memory hierarchy).
  • Next-generation software companies must shift their business models toward AI-driven consumption patterns or they will be left behind.

Organizational Bottlenecks And The Learning-Rate Mechanism

  • AI-driven efficiency does not translate directly into proportional compensation or headcount reduction because engineers will redeploy time into broader product, data, and cross-functional work, making multi-hat individuals more valuable.
  • Product and marketing are not meaningfully separate functions because both are expressions of the same underlying story to customers and the market.
  • Specs for agents should include richer structured context (including examples and libraries of what to emulate and avoid), and agents should help author specs in execution-compatible formats.

Equity Risk Backdrop: Sentiment And Positioning

  • Goldman’s risk appetite indicator is near the 96th percentile, a regime where pullbacks are more frequent and outsized equity returns are historically rare, especially when systematic investors are re-levered and buybacks are in blackout.
  • Electricity costs have been one of the hottest CPI components.
  • Trump’s discussion of a 10% cap on credit card issuer interest rates coincided with notable moves in credit-card issuer stocks.

Perps Dex Competition, Distribution, And Monetization

  • Lighter has bought back about 1.4 million LIT (about $2.8 million) since December 29.
  • Twitter blacklisting specific InfoFi apps is argued to be a non-solution because similar spam incentives can reappear in new forms and require repeated blacklisting.
  • Kalshi was sued over a TikTok ad that portrayed the product as a financial tool by implying users could pay rent after winning on predictions.

Inflation Transmission, Inequality, And Household Fragility

  • Inflation from money creation transmits unevenly across the economy, causing different asset and consumer prices to rise at different times and magnitudes.
  • The 10-year Japanese government bond yield was about 7% in 1990 before a multi-decade collapse in yields.
  • Thailand is a failed state in some respects, and this weak state capacity results in a higher degree of individual freedom than in more tightly governed countries.

Twitter’s approach of blacklisting specific InfoFi apps is argued to be ineffective because similar spam in

  • Twitter’s approach of blacklisting specific InfoFi apps is argued to be ineffective because similar spam incentives can reappear in new forms and require repeated blacklisting.
  • The corpus presents a tension that platforms position prediction contracts as distinct from gambling for regulatory advantage even though much user activity is effectively gambling.
  • Lighter has bought back about 1.4 million LIT (about $2.8 million) since December 29.