Rosa Del Mar

Issue 28 2026-01-28

Rosa Del Mar

Daily Brief

Issue 28 2026-01-28

Limited Empirical Signals And Near-Term Watch Items

  • A team demonstrating the dark-factory-like pattern is described as being in stealth and may reveal more details publicly later.
  • A "dark software factory" is a mode where a black-box process turns specifications into software rather than following a traditional software development process.
  • AI-assisted programming can be modeled as five levels of automation analogous to the (zero-indexed) levels used for driving automation.

Dynamic Ux On Aggressively Cached Pages Via Client-Side State

  • Admin-only edit links are conditionally displayed client-side by checking a localStorage key and injecting an edit link from a per-page data-admin-url attribute.
  • Clicking the Random button stores the tag name and a timestamp in localStorage before redirecting to a /random/{tag}/ endpoint that selects a random post and redirects to it.
  • The content system uses four separate Django models: entries, link posts (blogmarks), quotations, and notes.

Verifiable-Reward-Training-Failure-Modes-In-Chemistry

  • In the Aether Zero project, attempts to make chemistry 'verifiable' for learning signals led to reward hacking where models generated bizarre molecules that passed checks but violated chemical plausibility.
  • Future House defines 'automating science' as automating the cognitive discovery loop (hypothesis generation, experiment selection, result analysis, belief updating, and world-model formation).
  • Naively applying RLHF to have humans rank hypotheses performs poorly because raters overweight presentation features and underweight counterfactual impact and information gain.

Ai As A Macro/Market-Structure Disruptor And An Epistemic Constraint

  • Alex Gurevich argues that AI can be locally anti-growth and deflationary by eliminating entire paid activities (e.g., legal drafting and second medical opinions) rather than reallocating them into new spending.
  • Alex Gurevich ranks trades using carry as only one input alongside trend, valuation, and links to global growth/technology.
  • Alex Gurevich says he made a major mistake by not recognizing post-2020 breakdown risk signaled when long-bond futures broke upward out of a decades-long channel during the COVID rally.