Crypto Policy Posture: Alleged Debanking And Shifting Legislative Landscape
Key takeaways
- Ben Horowitz identifies the “Clarity Act” as a pending crypto market-structure bill intended to define how different token types are classified under rules.
- David Solomon says Goldman spent about $6B on technology last year and could not spend $8B without reducing returns, implying efficiency savings are needed to increase investment while maintaining performance.
- Ben Horowitz flags copyright treatment for AI training—whether models may learn from copyrighted works without reproducing them—as a key upcoming policy issue affecting U.S. AI strength versus China.
- Ten years ago Goldman Sachs was the largest wholesale funder in the world and has since prioritized moving away from reliance on wholesale funding toward more stable sources.
- David Solomon warns that the shift back toward multipolarity increases the risk of a geopolitical shock that slows growth compared to the post–Cold War era.
Sections
Crypto Policy Posture: Alleged Debanking And Shifting Legislative Landscape
The corpus contains allegations that crypto was suppressed through informal executive/regulatory pressure and debanking tactics, and reports Wells notices received by portfolio companies. It also asserts that two bills are now law and flags a separate market-structure bill as pending amid political “drama.” These are high-salience deltas but remain unresolved/disputed in this corpus because no bill text, enactment confirmation, or countervailing evidence is provided.
- Ben Horowitz identifies the “Clarity Act” as a pending crypto market-structure bill intended to define how different token types are classified under rules.
- Ben Horowitz claims the prior U.S. administration effectively banned parts of the crypto industry via executive pressure rather than legislation or formal legal process, including the use of debanking tactics.
- Ben Horowitz asserts the prior U.S. administration effectively banned crypto via non-legislative regulatory pressure (including debanking and enforcement actions) and frames this as abusive use of government power.
- Ben Horowitz argues the Biden administration treated essentially all tokens and even some NFTs as securities, citing enforcement actions he describes as extreme.
- Ben Horowitz says there has been “drama” around the Clarity Act and that it is currently being pushed for passage.
- Ben Horowitz states that the Genius Act and a Stablecoin Bill passed and are now law.
Enterprise Ai Adoption In Regulated Institutions: Experimentation Vs Process Reengineering Under Constraints
The corpus distinguishes two enterprise AI paths at Goldman: distributing tools to employees for experimentation and reengineering core processes for automation with reinvestment of savings. It adds a binding constraint (regulatory clearance slows deployment) and a governance constraint (process change threatens “empires,” requiring top-down drive). A concrete economic boundary is provided via tech spend (~$6B) and the claim that moving to ~$8B would reduce returns absent efficiencies.
- David Solomon says Goldman spent about $6B on technology last year and could not spend $8B without reducing returns, implying efficiency savings are needed to increase investment while maintaining performance.
- David Solomon says Goldman launched “1GS 3.0” to reimagine six specific firm processes and describes the resulting capacity impact as significant but not publicly quantified.
- David Solomon says Goldman’s first AI focus is broadly distributing tools and models to employees so they can experiment and find productivity gains in client work.
- David Solomon says the more consequential AI opportunity is reimagining core enterprise operating processes for automation and efficiency and then reinvesting savings into growth areas.
- David Solomon says large-scale process reimagination is difficult because it threatens existing organizational “empires” and therefore must be driven top-down.
- David Solomon says regulatory clearance requirements significantly slow Goldman’s ability to deploy AI tools compared with companies that can “just try it.”
Ai Policy Design Constraints: Application Regulation, State Patchwork, And Copyright
The corpus frames AI regulation as a competitiveness lever, advocating application-level regulation rather than regulating model development, and warning that 50-state fragmentation could be prohibitive for new entrants. It also identifies copyright rules for training as a key upcoming uncertainty affecting AI capability development. These claims describe constraints and proposed policy principles rather than documenting enacted rules.
- Ben Horowitz flags copyright treatment for AI training—whether models may learn from copyrighted works without reproducing them—as a key upcoming policy issue affecting U.S. AI strength versus China.
- Ben Horowitz warns that heavy-handed AI regulation or bans could cause the U.S. to lose the AI race to China with long-term strategic consequences.
- Ben Horowitz says a patchwork of 50 state-level AI laws would make it effectively impossible for new companies to comply and innovate.
- Ben Horowitz advocates regulating AI applications rather than regulating model development itself, summarized as “don’t regulate math.”
- Ben Horowitz warns that banning AI or restricting the underlying mathematics would cause the U.S. to lose the AI race to China with century-scale implications.
Banking Resilience And Competitive Position: Scale And Funding-Base Shift
The corpus asserts scale as a strategic requirement in mature financial services and describes a large structural funding change: moving away from wholesale funding toward deposits (quantified at ~$500B, ~40% funding). The expectation that further balance-sheet scale is needed is present but not substantiated with a specific plan or external evidence in this corpus.
- Ten years ago Goldman Sachs was the largest wholesale funder in the world and has since prioritized moving away from reliance on wholesale funding toward more stable sources.
- Goldman Sachs shifted from having zero deposits 15 years ago to about $500B in total deposits, including a digital deposit platform with over $200B, and deposits now fund roughly 40% of the firm.
- In mature financial services businesses, scale provides leverage and latitude during turbulence, making scale a central long-term strategic requirement for Goldman Sachs.
- Goldman Sachs believes it must continue increasing balance-sheet scale over the next 5–15 years because it is currently far smaller than JPMorgan and organic scale-building is difficult in mature businesses.
Macro/Capital-Markets Outlook: Stimulus Mix, Concentration, And Geopolitical Risk
The corpus presents a coherent macro mechanism (multiple stimulus channels making growth hard to slow) and an additional claim about concentrated capex contributing materially to GDP growth. It also flags geopolitics/multipolarity as a key downside risk that could disrupt the favorable setup. Several elements are presented as assessments or quantified assertions without corroboration inside the corpus.
- David Solomon warns that the shift back toward multipolarity increases the risk of a geopolitical shock that slows growth compared to the post–Cold War era.
- David Solomon argues a “cocktail of stimulus” (fiscal stimulus, a rate-cutting cycle, a capital investment supercycle, and deregulatory unwind) makes the U.S. economy hard to slow.
- David Solomon states that last year the four largest companies contributed about 1% to U.S. GDP growth through roughly $400B of spending.
- David Solomon views the current U.S. macro setup for investable and financial assets as the best “sweet spot” he has seen in decades despite substantial global complexity.
Watchlist
- David Solomon warns that the shift back toward multipolarity increases the risk of a geopolitical shock that slows growth compared to the post–Cold War era.
- Ben Horowitz flags ongoing uncertainty and aggressiveness from the FTC (including toward smaller tech deals) as a potential constraint that could shift M&A toward IP-style transactions rather than traditional acquisitions.
- Ben Horowitz identifies the “Clarity Act” as a pending crypto market-structure bill intended to define how different token types are classified under rules.
- Ben Horowitz says there has been “drama” around the Clarity Act and that it is currently being pushed for passage.
- Ben Horowitz warns that heavy-handed AI regulation or bans could cause the U.S. to lose the AI race to China with long-term strategic consequences.
- Ben Horowitz flags copyright treatment for AI training—whether models may learn from copyrighted works without reproducing them—as a key upcoming policy issue affecting U.S. AI strength versus China.
- David Solomon questions whether models trained on widely available information can produce differentiated investment outperformance.
Unknowns
- What are the specific six processes targeted by Goldman’s “1GS 3.0,” and what measurable capacity, cost, error-rate, or cycle-time changes have resulted?
- How stable are Goldman’s deposits under stress, what is the cost of those deposits relative to wholesale funding, and what portion of deposits are operationally sticky versus rate-sensitive?
- Is the claim that a16z raised ~18.3% of all U.S. venture capital in 2025 accurate under a consistent definition of “venture capital raised,” and what is the denominator/source?
- Which four companies are referenced in the claim about ~$400B spend contributing ~1% to U.S. GDP growth, and what accounting links that spending to GDP contribution?
- What concrete regulatory changes or clearance processes are the main blockers for Goldman’s AI deployment, and what is the typical approval timeline?