Rosa Del Mar

Issue 33 2026-02-02

Rosa Del Mar

Daily Brief

Issue 33 2026-02-02

Ai As Filter, Moat Logic, And Economic Mechanism

  • Zeev disputes the claim that AI will broadly kill incumbents, arguing incumbents often have superior data and can benefit if they adapt quickly.
  • Zeev states that if an investment thesis looks weird or wrong at entry, it often implies fewer competitors and a multi-year moat-building window, conditional on the thesis being correct.
  • Zeev states macro variables like interest-rate velocity can break otherwise strong-looking businesses and that stress tests should consider faster and deeper adverse scenarios than prior worst-case assumptions.

Monetary-Order Transition, Capital Mobility, And Gold As A Regime Signal/Hedge

  • Foreign investors are not uniformly confident that U.S. private-sector property rights will be honored, and this could become a headwind to ongoing capital inflows supporting U.S. asset prices.
  • If financial repression occurs today starting from high U.S. equity valuations, the post-WWII equity outcome is a poor direct template for expected results.
  • The selection among debt-reduction paths is primarily a political decision about what is acceptable and sustainable rather than a purely economic optimization.

Ipo As Distribution And Governance Tool With Material Fixed Costs

  • BitGo began IPO preparation in January 2025 and filed an initial confidential S-1 around September, iterating with SEC comments before flipping public ahead of the roadshow.
  • BitGo currently offers the Go Network for free as a strategy to bring clients into its ecosystem and drive usage of other services.
  • After a 2025 shift in SEC stance, BitGo expanded from about 10 assets to roughly 275 trading pairs.

Crypto Policy Posture: Alleged Debanking And Shifting Legislative Landscape

  • Ben Horowitz identifies the “Clarity Act” as a pending crypto market-structure bill intended to define how different token types are classified under rules.
  • David Solomon says Goldman spent about $6B on technology last year and could not spend $8B without reducing returns, implying efficiency savings are needed to increase investment while maintaining performance.
  • Ben Horowitz flags copyright treatment for AI training—whether models may learn from copyrighted works without reproducing them—as a key upcoming policy issue affecting U.S. AI strength versus China.

Mainstream Media Involvement And Narrative Framing

  • Simon Willison corrected a draft description of his reaction from 'intrigued' to 'entertained', and the New York Times used his preferred wording.
  • Simon Willison views Moltbots as evidence that AI agents have become significantly more powerful in the past few months.
  • Bot-to-bot 'machine conspiracy' chatter can be a predictable artifact of chatbot training on large internet text corpora that include dystopian science fiction.

Architecture Choice With Portability And Security Implications

  • OpenAI states that robust sandboxing on Windows is taking longer because Windows offers fewer OS-level primitives for it.
  • OpenAI reports that since the mid-December launch of GPT–5.2-Codex, overall Codex usage has doubled.
  • Codex is positioned as a general agent framework where stronger code reasoning and generation increases capability across broader technical and knowledge-work tasks beyond programming.

Missing-Market-Infrastructure-Ratings-Insurance-And-2026-Expectations

  • DeFi lending needs broadly accepted third-party risk ratings (e.g., investment grade vs high yield) so users can benchmark yield versus risk rather than treating APYs as comparable.
  • Maple originates and funds loans on-chain in stablecoins while collateral can be held off-chain via direct or tri-party custodian arrangements, including native BTC.
  • White-labeled stablecoins can have acceptable backing, but their lending value depends on downstream borrower demand and ecosystem liquidity, so protocol-native stablecoins often price worse than widely used ones.